2021 MLB Season Predictions

Pandemic baseball is back. While there are plenty of COVID-19 off-the-field storylines to keep watch for this season, I want to focus on one that will impact teams greatly. Coming off a 60 game season pitchers will have to build up their workload beyond what Spring Training provides. Pitching depth will be key for teams to stay afloat in their divisions during the first half of the season. Last season saw heavy pitcher injuries. The cause of this is believed to due to the suspension of Spring Training last March and the subsequent Summer Camp. My predictions for this season will have pitching depth in mind. There are going to be unforeseen consequences to the shortened season last year, we will have to just wait and see how they materialize.

Not everything is so grim though! Some big names moved teams. The Dodgers are in prime position to defend their World Series title. The Padres got better. The Mets got better. The Royals got better too!

As stated, my predictions will be considering pitching depth as well as other factors that will be noted. These predictions will be using Fangraphs projections as well as Vegas over/under odds. Spoiler alert, I am a Dodgers fan and I have picked them to win the World Series every year I have been watching baseball and that will never change. Let’s take a look at these division races!

National League West

· Los Angeles Dodgers [Vegas +/- 102.5] [Fangraphs 98–64]

OVER- The Dodgers are the overwhelming favorite to win the division, league, and World Series. No team has comparable starting pitching depth. If needed they could run a seven-man rotation. All big leaguers with prospects Josiah Gray and Mitch White waiting. Not to mention Jimmy Nelson, also a big leaguer providing even more depth if he remains healthy.

They lost fan favorites, Joc Pederson and Kiké Hernandez. This only opens the door for Edwin Rios and Zach McKinstry. Gavin Lux has fallen off the “top prospect” radar, but look for him to be a legitimate Rookie of the Year contender.

Kenley Jansen, despite what the comments section say, had a good 2020 and is entering the final year of his contract. Blake Treinen is back and they added Corey Knebel. Look for some of that starting pitching depth to make appearances out of the pen, especially as we get closer to October.

While the top of the division got better, the bottom got worse. Look for the Dodgers to rack up wins against a weakened AL West this year as well. Count on this team to break some records this season.

· San Diego Padres [Vegas +/- 94.5][Fangraphs 95–67]

UNDER- Their top-heavy rotation acquisitions deservedly made headlines this offseason. Yu Darvish and Blake Snell give this team a scary 1–2 punch in October. It is the road to October that has me concerned. After Darvish and Snell, there are some big question marks. Dinelson Lamet’s only concern is his elbow. If injury is not an issue, his talent is a difference-maker. Chris Paddack has not shown consistency in the show but should have plenty of opportunities to prove himself this season. After that, the depth runs thin. They lost Trevor Rosenthal and Kirby Yates in the bullpen, so there are even more question marks with their pitching staff as a whole.

On the other side of the diamond is where San Diego’s strength really shines. There aren’t enough superlatives to describe Fernando Tatis Jr. He and Machado will lead this team offensively, with Tommy Pham, Trent Grisham, and Wil Myers lengthening this lineup. Keep an eye on Jake Cronenworth as well. They shouldn’t struggle to score runs.

I’m taking the under because of their lack of pitching depth. Blake Snell hasn’t been an innings eater to this point in his career and the lack of the Padres pitching depth extends to the bullpen. A lot must go right for the Padres to win over 94 games in my opinion.

· San Fransisco Giants [Vegas +/- 75.5][Fangraphs 77–85]

UNDER- I believe in Farhan Zaidi. I wish it were the Giants challenging the Dodgers instead of the Padres. I know in a few years I will be eating those words when the Giants are good again. Despite adding a ton of depth this offseason they won't be playoff contenders. I am taking the under simply because they are in a top-heavy division and are on fairly even ground with the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks might even be slightly better. I am giving the Giants the edge because no matter the state of the roster they always play the Dodgers well. For this team to hit the over, Mike Yastrzemski and Donovan Solano will have to repeat past performances.

· Arizona Diamondbacks [Vegas +/- 74.5][Fangraphs 73–89]

UNDER- Whether or not this team hits the over depends on how long Zac Gallen is injured and how he recovers. That dude can pitch. As for the rest of the rotation, there is a lot to be desired. They have some dudes who can mash, mostly non-household names but names I know very well. Eduardo Escobar, Christian Walker, and Carson Kelly have frustrated me many times because losing to the Diamondbacks is super annoying. Look for Ketel Marte to have a bounce-back year as well. Watch for this team to have one great month where people think they are “for real”, then fizzle down to reality. That always seems to happen.

· Colorado Rockies [Vegas +/- 64.5][Fangraphs 67–95]

UNDER- This ownership group deserves all of the negative criticism aimed toward them. Everything has already been said about their trading of Nolan Arenado. Seeing how he performs in an organization with a winning tradition. The most interesting thing about their 2021 will be in their handling of Trevor Story.

National League Central

· St. Louis Cardinals [Vegas +/- 86.5][Fangraphs 79–83]

OVER- Just slightly over. The addition of Arenado gives them a bizarro corner infield to Dodger fans. So weird. Jack Flaherty is one of my favorite non-Dodgers. The rest of the rotation is suspect, especially with the running theme of pitching depth, but should keep them competitive in their division. The return of Jordan Hicks is something to look forward to. This might be my least confident “over” pick. If they were in a different division, I would lean more toward the Fangraphs projection of 79 but I am forever scarred by Cardinal’s devil magic.

· Milwaukee Brewers [Vegas +/- 82.5][Fangraphs 81–81]

OVER- The Brewers are another team I don’t like picking against. This is purely based on them making the playoffs last year and memories of the 2018 NLCS. The latter was a very underrated, exciting series. Most of those guys are still on the team and I believe they can put together a decent season. I believe their pitching puts them above the Cubs, but under the Cardinals. Their bullpen should allow them to hold on to victories whenever they get a good performance out of one of their starters. I’m also not betting against Yelich, Hiura, and Cain. This team always finds a way to win games.

· Chicago Cubs [Vegas +/- 79.5][Fangraphs 78–84]

OVER- I’m not smashing the over on the Cubs. I think they’re a .500 team. They can hit for sure and I think Joc Pederson will have a positive influence on their clubhouse. The pitching is rough. I certainly wouldn’t want to face Hendricks in a playoff game, but over the course of 162, he won't be enough to carry this staff. I’ve seen Davies shove against the Dodgers plenty of times so he definitely has a lot of ability. Alec Mills will have a nice opportunity to prove himself after throwing his no-hitter last season. They could pitch themselves up to the top of the division, it wouldn’t be surprising. I think the front office is hoping otherwise though. Fire sale!

· Cincinnati Reds [Vegas +/- 82.5][Fangraphs 78–84]

UNDER- Not entirely sure what this organization’s plan is. They spent money before last season, presuming that they were going to try to win. The division is still wide open and they really didn’t do anything to improve. A few moves and dollars could have secured the Reds the division. I hope Hunter Greene makes his debut this year and is great. Other than that, I won't be watching many Reds games. Especially since Bauer is no longer in Cincinnati.

· Pittsburgh Pirates [Vegas +/- 58.5][Fangraphs 66–96]

UNDER- Ke’Bryan Hayes is the real deal. Cole Tucker is living many a man’s fantasy. This team stinks. Sorry, Rocker/Leiter.

National League East

· Atlanta Braves [Vegas +/- 91.5][Fangraphs 89–73]

OVER- This team was one win away from ruining my dreams. This is a very good team. Their rotation and lineup are legit. There are bullpen issues but this organization clearly wants to win and I fully expect them to make trades bolster it. I think the Barves are the clear-cut best team in the division. Don’t overlook this team because their division competitors improved and stole the headlines. The Braves are very, very good.

· New York Mets [Vegas +/- 90.5][Fangraphs 92–70]

UNDER- This franchise is on the right path. I would love nothing more than to have some 2015 NLDS revenge against them. They will be exciting to watch and have some dudes who can mash. I just don’t see their rotation holding up over the course of the season. deGrom is only one man. I do see them winning the second wildcard spot which sets them up nicely against the Padres with deGrom likely starting that game. But, they are still the Mets, and Mets things can and probably will happen. But as said earlier, they are on the right path.

· Washington Nationals [Vegas +/- 84.5][Fangraphs 83–79]

UNDER- If their rotation can perform this team will win lots of games and challenge the Mets. There’s no wiggle room for this staff. Everything must go right. The line-up is legit, I’m excited to watch Josh Bell on a good team. The ceiling is second place with a floor of being a .500 team.

· Philadelphia Phillies [Vegas +/- 80.5][Fangraphs 81–81]

EVEN- The deciding factor here was seeing Matt Moore in their rotation. Yeesh. They’ve got a really good lineup and have added some nice bullpen dudes. They have a really good 1–2 at the top of the rotation, but that will only get them so many wins. They are trending upward though, and re-signing Realmuto was a sign of that. The NL East will be a really tough division in a couple of years.

· Miami Marlins [Vegas +/- 70.5][Fangraphs 73–89]

OVER- First off, I love their uniforms. Secondly, they don’t have to be good just yet. They won a playoff series last year, which gives these dudes some motivation. They have an interesting roster. Some really good young starters like the bad-assly-named Sixto Sanchez. They added solid bullpen dudes in Dylan Floro and John Curtiss. This is a fun squad that will be major spoilers for the teams atop the division.

American League West

· Oakland Athletics [Vegas +/- 87.5][Fangraphs 83–79]

OVER- This division is pretty even across the board aside from Texas. The Mariners aren’t great but should play competitively against their division rivals. Oakland always finds a way to pitch. Every move they make is on purpose so I refuse to bet against them in the regular season. I love the Matt’s and Laureano. This will be a fun team to watch.

· Anaheim Angels [Vegas +/- 83.5][Fangraphs 84–78]

UNDER- The Angels acquired a lot of depth which should help them finish over .500 this season, but not by much. I can’t imagine them making the playoffs because both Wild Card spots will likely come out of the other divisions. With a new GM in Perry Minasian, hopefully, they are going in a better direction. They have some vets in the bullpen now so they could hold on to some more victories when they get good production out of their starters. The rotation is rough, but if dudes outperform or they get career years out of Quintana and Heany they could make a surprise run.

· Houston Astros [Vegas +/- 86.5][Fangraphs 88–74]

UNDER- Smash the under on this trash organization. The cheaters remaining from the 2017 squad should be impacted by the deserving boos and heckling they will receive the rest of their careers. I Hope Greinke does well.

· Seattle Mariners [Vegas +/- 72.5][Fangraphs 74–88]

OVER- Taking the over for two reasons. One being the chip on their shoulder from the offseason controversy. Two being Kyle Lewis. I think this team will play spoiler against the top of the division, much more so than the next team on this list.

· Texas Rangers [Vegas +/- 66.5][Fangraphs 70–92]

UNDER- This team stinks and doesn’t have a clear direction.

American League Central

· Chicago White Sox [Vegas +/- 91.5][Fangraphs 85–77]

OVER- My gut says the White Sox will win the central. I’m not sure about the back half of their rotation, but the studs that make up the rest will earn them lots of dubs. Talent in the line-up is enviable. The addition of Liam Hendriks makes them scary in the playoffs as well. This team is built for October, but their path there could be difficult with the Twins and Indians. I’m taking a slight over, 94 wins.

· Minnesota Twins [Vegas +/- 88.5][Fangraphs 87–75]

UNDER- I don’t know about this rotation beyond Maeda and Berrios. The lineup is top-heavy and is relying on some solid yet aging vets. I think they are in the position to make an impact trade if they stay afloat in the division. They can pile up wins against the Tigers and Royals and definitely can compete with Chicago.

· Cleveland Indians [Vegas +/- 81.5][Fangraphs 81–81]

OVER- Yeesh this lineup. Their pitching will get them wins along with playing the Tigers and Royals a bunch. I’m looking forward to Triston Mackenzie and Shane Bieber, but that’s about it. I hope Jose Ramirez finds a good home.

· Kansas City Royals [Vegas +/- 66.5][Fangraphs 70–92]

OVER- They have a sneaky good lineup and could play major spoiler if their young rotation performs. They aren’t supposed to be at the top of the league yet but expect them to win a surprising amount of games.

· Detroit Tigers [Vegas +/- 68.5][Fangraphs 71–91]

UNDER- What happened to the Tigers? This is not a very good roster. I’m a firm believer that any team with Derek Holland on it is not trying to win baseball games.

American League East

· Tampa Bay Rays [Vegas +/- 85.5][Fangraphs 83–79]

OVER- The Rays are another team I won't bet against. Another team whose moves are always done on purpose. I’m also not a believer in the rest of this division. The Rays should easily win the East. Franco watch 2021.

· New York Yankees [Vegas +/- 95.5][Fangraphs 95–67]

UNDER- The Yankees do not have a good starting rotation. I would go as far as to say they have a bad starting rotation. They will hit. I’m only picking them to finish second because of their lineup and because every projection has them very high (I don’t understand) so there must be something I’m not seeing. If they can add some starting pitching they will be able to compete with the Rays for the division.

· Toronto Blue Jays [Vegas +/- 86.5][Fangraphs 88–74]

UNDER- Like the Yankees, the Blue Jays have a bad rotation and their ace is not Gerrit Cole. Their lineup makes them must-watch baseball, although I will never root for cheater Springer and I hope Yankee fans give him hell the rest of his career. The Blue Jays are the AL East team of the future, still.

· Boston Red Sox [Vegas +/- 80.5][Fangraphs 86–76]

OVER- There is a theme going for bad rotations in the AL East, which is true for the Red Sox. It won't be fair to rely on Chris Sale coming back from Tommy John. They do have a fun lineup that now includes Kiké Hernandez which makes this team watchable as opposed to last year. Take care of Vergudo and Kiké, Red Sox fans. I’m taking a slight over, 82 wins.

· Baltimore Orioles [Vegas +/- 64.5][Fangraphs 67–95]

UNDER- Trey Mancini is an inspiration and I wish him the best of luck. Hopefully, a trade out of Baltimore to a contender is in his future.

Playoffs

NL Wild Card: Mets over Padres

NLDS: Braves over Cardinals / Dodgers over Mets

AL Wild Card: Yankees over Twins

ALDS: Rays over Athletics / White Sox over Yankees

NLCS: Dodgers over Braves

ALCS: White Sox over Rays

World Series: Dodgers over White Sox in 5 games